Posted: 7:39 pm Wednesday, September 14th, 2016
By Jamie Dupree
The ground of the 2016 race for President seemed to shift a bit more on Wednesday, as new polls showed Donald Trump grabbing the overall lead in two key swing states, as the GOP nominee also made new gains nationally, raising fresh questions about the durability of Hillary Clinton’s campaign for the White House.
Loud, enthusiastic crowd in Canton, OH. And Trump seems very upbeat – and, in a rarity lately, started by touting good polls
— Jonathan Lemire (@JonLemire) September 14, 2016
Trump celebrated the new polling data at the start of a rally in Canton, Ohio.
“We’re up sort of like – everywhere,” Trump said to cheers.
“I think we are going to have an unbelievable November 8,” Trump added, clearly relishing the moment during his Wednesday evening stop.
This is retro Peak Trump right now in Canton. Polls. Trumpisms. Me furiously typing.
— Sopan Deb (@SopanDeb) September 14, 2016
Despite health issues and some recent missteps, Hilary Clinton up until this week could still point to polling data that showed her with a healthy advantage – but that has changed in the month of September, as new data from major polling organizations showed a shift in favor of Trump, both nationally and in states like Ohio:
Polls released since 9/1, Ohio:
— Ariel Edwards-Levy (@aedwardslevy) September 14, 2016
Also out on Wednesday, a CNN poll that showed a narrow lead for Trump in Florida – pushing Trump ahead in the polling averages for those two very key states.
Trump now leads HRC in Florida & Ohio (first time) in the RCP average
— Ted Hamlin (@TedHamlinRCP) September 14, 2016
Certainly we need to have the big reminder for everyone that all sorts of things could go on over the next seven weeks and change the dynamics of this race – but as I wrote a few days ago, for all those who have insisted that this election was all but over (in favor of Hillary Clinton), these polls show something much different.
“This cycle has taught me not to make as many assumptions,” wrote elections expert Nathan Gonzales.
“Let’s just wait for more data,” he added on Twitter.
Want polls from CO, NH, PA, VA, WI. If Trump breaks through in one of those states, then he's got something.
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) September 14, 2016
“It’s not totally clear how much Clinton’s “bad weekend” affected the polls,” wrote polling guru Nate Silver on Twitter, as he said it’s “clear” that Trump is “still gaining ground.”
The way the map is evolving at this point, the most important state for Clinton in terms of winning might be Pennsylvania, where Clinton has held a solid lead.
But we have not had recent polling in the Keystone State, what might be Clinton’s firewall.
This election has reminded me a bit of the legal challenge to the Obama health law a few years ago. As that case made its way to the U.S. Supreme Court, a lot of legal experts said it could never succeed.
But once we had the first day of arguments before the justices in Washington, D.C., all of a sudden a lot of very smart people realized that the law could be thrown out.
In many ways, I see a similar thing at play here – that a lot of people simply wrote off Donald Trump, and kept telling themselves that he would never win the GOP nomination, let alone in November.
But with less than two months to go, here he is – whether you think he has faults and weaknesses, he has as much of a chance to win on November 8 as Hillary Clinton.